How-to NFO vs existing decision framework

How to decide between NFO and an existing scheme

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The NFO vs existing scheme decision is a sub-case of the broader NFO evaluation question. The empirical evidence overwhelmingly favours existing track-record schemes in established categories. NFOs win only on genuine novelty.

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Step-by-step procedure

See the procedure infobox above.

Why existing typically wins

FactorExisting schemeNFO
Track record5-15 yearsZero
TER (early-AUM penalty)Optimised by scaleHigher initially
Manager attributionVerifiableUnknown
Style consistencyDemonstratedSpeculated
Process refinementMatureNew
Risk profile dataStableTheoretical

SPIVA India scorecards show most actively-managed funds underperform their benchmark over 10-year horizons. Among those that outperform, established schemes have proven processes; NFOs are gambles on unproven approaches.

Worked example: Flexi Cap NFO vs existing

Suppose AMC X launches a Flexi Cap NFO at Rs 10:

Existing peers:

  • Parag Parikh Flexi Cap (10+ year record, AUM Rs 50k+ crore, TER ~0.7%).
  • HDFC Flexi Cap (decades-long, AUM Rs 50k+ crore, TER ~0.8%).
  • Kotak Flexi Cap (10+ year, strong record).

The NFO:

  • No track record.
  • Initial AUM Rs 100-200 crore.
  • Higher early TER (1.5%+).
  • Same SEBI category bounds.

For Rs 1 lakh invested over 10 years at 12% return:

  • Existing scheme: ~Rs 3.1 lakh.
  • NFO at 11% (1% TER drag): ~Rs 2.8 lakh.

The Rs 30k differential is approximately the TER drag of the NFO over the established peer. The NFO would need to outperform existing peers by 1%+ annually just to break even.

Counterargument: index fund NFOs

For index funds (passive), the NFO concern is partially diluted:

  • Index fund tracks a fixed index; no manager attribution.
  • TER differences across index fund NFOs are small.
  • Operational quality (tracking error) is what matters.

For passive NFOs, choosing established peer or NFO depends mainly on:

  • AMC operational track record on index funds.
  • TER.
  • Tracking error (computed after a few months of operation).

Even here, established peers typically win.

When NFO genuinely competes

SituationNFO advantage
Truly new category (no existing peers)NFO is the only option
AMC’s first scheme of established categorySubscribe only if strong governance + flagship manager
Distinctive product structureCapital protection, target maturity, etc.
ETF where established peer has high tracking errorBetter-designed NFO could win

See also

External references

References

  1. SEBI (Mutual Funds) Regulations, 1996.
  2. SEBI October 2017 categorisation circular.
  3. SPIVA India scorecards.
  4. AMFI Best Practice Guidelines.

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